Warming Is Increasing Hurricane Activity
Jul 31, 20201.1M Shares17.3M Views
Illustration by:Matt Mahurin
A paper published yesterday in Naturefor the first time measures the contribution of rising sea surface temperatures to changes in hurricane frequency and intensity. The authors found that about 40 percent of the increase in Atlantic hurricanes between 1996 and 2005 –in comparison to the average over the 1950-2000 period–is due to the heat of the sea surface–about 0.5 degrees centigrade on average. In the past, it’s been argued that changes in near-surface trade wind speed were the cause of increased hurricane activity. The British authors of the study, Mark Saunders and Adam Lea, do not claim that their analysis can establish whether global warming is responsible for the increase in sea temperatures. But it seems likely that it is, at least partly. The only other explanation is something called the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation. The latter is a hypothetical natural cyclic shift in the ocean’s temperatures.
According to the 2007 Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, it is “more likely than not” that manmade climate change has contributed to hurricane intensification since the 1970s. The IPCC also predicted that as the earth and seas continue to grow warmer, hurricane winds and rainfall will continue to grow more intense.
Worldwide, the number of strong hurricanes and cyclones has increased by 75 percent since 1970.
Paolo Reyna
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Paolo Reyna is a writer and storyteller with a wide range of interests. He graduated from New York University with a Bachelor of Arts in Journalism and Media Studies.
Paolo enjoys writing about celebrity culture, gaming, visual arts, and events. He has a keen eye for trends in popular culture and an enthusiasm for exploring new ideas. Paolo's writing aims to inform and entertain while providing fresh perspectives on the topics that interest him most.
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