Counting Warren Votes

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[T]he GOP has been willing to filibuster even seemingly popular proposals. But, after surveying a dozen insiders over the last few days — congressional aides, industry officials, progressive activists, and a few administration officials — I’ve concluded that the odds are good that Warren would be confirmed if nominated by the White House. (The White House itself agrees — it is ”confident she is confirmable,” according to a spokeperson.)

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Most telling is the basic Senate math. According to two senior Senate aides — one whose boss favors Warren and the other whose boss would prefer an alternative — pretty much every Senate Democrat (and Independent) would find it agonizingly difficult to join a filibuster of Warren’s nomination, which would mean opposing an outspoken consumer advocate at a time of deep anti-Wall Street sentiment.Simply put: hoping the president will choose another candidate — something that describes several Senate Democrats — isn’t the same as opposing his eventual nominee.