Are Third-Party Presidential Bids a Pipe Dream?
Third-party candidates face dizzyingly steep odds of ever claiming the presidency, which accounts in part for all the criticism that was unleashed on Thomas
Jul 31, 20202.5K Shares625.6K Views
Third-party candidates face dizzyingly steep odds of ever claiming the presidency, which accounts in part for all thecriticismthat was unleashed on Thomas Friedman’s Sunday columnthat half-pined for and half-predicted that a serious outside challenger would emerge in 2012. But FiveThirtyEight’s Nate Silver, known for his facility with numbers, provides a long list of reasonsfor why the odds might not be as long as they seem:
“„1.Voters have extremely low opinions of both major parties — much lower than in the period from 1992-1994, when electoral constituencies were being re-shuffled and when Mr. Perot lost his bid.
2.By some measures, an increasing number of voters prefer to identify as belonging to neither major party.
3. The Republicans might field a particularly polarizing presidential nominee. Sarah Palin, in particular, were she to be nominated, might have trouble achieving 50 percent of the vote, even if Barack Obama were still fairly unpopular.
4.The employment picture is likely to improve only modestly by 2012, according to most economists, which could contribute toward continued dissatisfaction with Washington.
5.Whichever party wins control of the Senate and the House in November, its majorities are liable to be narrow, which is likely to lead to gridlock and the inability to make good on its campaign promises.
Silver actually goes onto provide fifteen reasons in all, and while it’s hard to gauge their “statistical significance,” they’re a fairly compelling compilation. Odds are, even in such a relatively favorable environment, a third-party candidate would stand little chance of making significant inroads, but the broader point is that Friedman’s critics might not want to deny the possibility outright.
Camilo Wood
Reviewer
Camilo Wood has over two decades of experience as a writer and journalist, specializing in finance and economics. With a degree in Economics and a background in financial research and analysis, Camilo brings a wealth of knowledge and expertise to his writing.
Throughout his career, Camilo has contributed to numerous publications, covering a wide range of topics such as global economic trends, investment strategies, and market analysis. His articles are recognized for their insightful analysis and clear explanations, making complex financial concepts accessible to readers.
Camilo's experience includes working in roles related to financial reporting, analysis, and commentary, allowing him to provide readers with accurate and trustworthy information. His dedication to journalistic integrity and commitment to delivering high-quality content make him a trusted voice in the fields of finance and journalism.
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