As the Middle East undergoes profound transformations, the struggle for influence among regional and international powers remains a defining characteristic of this volatile region. Donald Trump’s return to the presidency raises critical questions regarding the future of American policy in the Middle East and the potential for reshaping the landscape to align with U.S. interests and those of its allies.
In recent months, Iran and its allies have faced significant setbacks. The conflict between Israel and Hamas in Gaza has resulted in the destruction of the group’s infrastructure and the killing of key military and political leaders. Meanwhile, Hezbollah in Lebanon has suffered considerable blows, including the targeting of its top leadership, notably its leader, Hassan Nasrallah. These developments have had substantial repercussions for the Assad regime in Syria, effectively severing the supply lines to Iran’s primary ally, Hezbollah. This sequence of events has led to a significant decline in Iranian influence across the Middle East.
In light of these shifting dynamics, Trump is presented with a unique opportunity to recalibrate the region in a manner that promotes stability and advances American interests.
Firstly, transforming the temporary ceasefire in Gaza into a lasting agreement is imperative. Addressing the status of Hamas is essential not only for ensuring stability in the territory but also for reducing the group’s role as a conduit for Iranian influence. Similarly, establishing a permanent ceasefire in Lebanon, along with necessary internal political arrangements, should be a priority.
Secondly, the prospect of engaging Iran from a position of relative weakness resulting from the setbacks experienced by its allies, compounded by economic sanctions and regional contraction opens avenues for resolving contentious issues, particularly the nuclear dilemma. This presents an opportunity for the U.S. to mitigate tensions and secure strategic diplomatic victories.
Thirdly, one of Trump’s significant achievements during his previous term was facilitating the normalization of relations between Arab nations and Israel. The success of the Abraham Accords marked a pivotal moment; however, the focus has remained on achieving broader and more comprehensive normalization. Saudi Arabia, as a central player in the region, has been at the forefront of these efforts. Normalizing relations between Saudi Arabia and Israel would strengthen a moderate Arab coalition against Iran and its allies but also bolster overall regional stability.
While the task of reshaping the Middle East is undoubtedly daunting, it is not insurmountable. Trump must navigate these challenges with astuteness and capitalize on available opportunities. The Trump administration has dealt significant blows to Iran and its proxies, yet achieving enduring stability necessitates bold actions that address ongoing regional conflicts. If Trump can make meaningful progress in this arena, he could leave behind a legacy that paves the way for a more stable and prosperous Middle East, all while safeguarding U.S. interests in the region.